Previous Winter Finch Forecasts

General Finch Forecast 2009-2010Top

by Ron Pittaway

Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
19 September 2009

General Forecast

The theme this winter is there will be no major finch irruptions outside their normal ranges. Finch numbers will be low and thinly distributed or absent in southern and northeastern Ontario and Quebec, where seed crops are poor. Higher numbers of finches should be attracted to much better cone crops in northwestern Ontario and west into northern Saskatchewan, the Maritime Provinces and Newfoundland, and northern New England States.

Key Finch Trees

The key tree species in Ontario’s boreal forest triggering finch movements and distribution are white and black spruces, white birch, and mountain‐ashes. South of the boreal forest in the mixed coniferous/deciduous forest region, white pine and hemlock are additional key finch trees. Other trees play a lesser role in finch movements, but often buffer main seed sources. These include tamarack, balsam fir, red pine, white cedar, alders, and yellow birch.

Tree Seed Crops

Spruce cone crops are poor in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park and in northeastern Ontario and Quebec. However, spruce crops are good to excellent in the boreal forest north of Lake Superior and west into Saskatchewan. Spruce cone abundance is lower in Alberta and eastern Rocky Mountains, Yukon and Alaska, but is excellent in some high spruce zones of central British Columbia. East of Quebec, spruce crops are good to excellent in much of Eastern Canada including the island of Newfoundland. Heavy spruce crops are also reported in the northern New England States. The white pine cone crop is poor in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park and fair to good elsewhere in the province, but spotty. White pine crops are heavy in New Hampshire. The hemlock crop is almost zero in the province. The white birch crop is poor in central and northeastern Ontario and Quebec, but improves westward in Ontario, becoming very good in Saskatchewan. Birch seed supplies are lower in Alberta and Alaska. The mountain‐ash (rowan berry) crop is excellent across most of the boreal forest in Canada, including the island of Newfoundland where it is called dogberry.

Individual Finch ForecastsTop

Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario, but neighboring provinces and states may find the forecast applies to them. An irruptive raptor and three irruptive passerines are also discussed.

Pine Grosbeak

Expect very little or no southward movement into southern Ontario because mountain‐ash berry crops are excellent in most of the boreal forest. A few should get south to Algonquin Park as in most winters.

Purple Finch

Most Purple Finches should migrate south out of the province this fall because many seed crops are poor in the north. This finch has declined significantly in recent decades.

Red Crossbill

This crossbill comprises at least 10 “call types” in North America. Each type has its cone preferences related to bill size and shape. The types are exceedingly difficult to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3 and probably 4 occur regularly in Ontario. Most Red Crossbills prefer pines, but the smallest‐billed Hemlock Type 3 (= subspecies sitkensis of AOU Check‐list 1957) prefers the small soft cones of hemlock and white spruce when bumper in Ontario. However, it should be absent from traditional areas such as Algonquin Park where hemlock and white spruce occur together because these crops are poor there. White pine Type 2 is the most frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the province. Since white pine crops are low in most of the province, it should be rare to absent this winter. Other Red Crossbill types are possible in the province.

White‐winged Crossbill

This crossbill has no subspecies or types in North America. In Ontario, it prefers the small soft cones of white, black and red spruces and hemlock. Many White‐winged Crossbills left the province this past summer after last winter's irruption. Some went into northern Ontario attracted to the good spruce cone crops and were singing and presumably nested. These birds may remain in the north this winter and could breed again in mid winter if seed supplies last. White‐winged Crossbills will be rare or absent this winter in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park because spruce and hemlock cone crops are low. White‐winged Crossbills should appear this winter in Newfoundland and the Maritime Provinces and the northern New England States, where spruce cone crops are good to heavy.

Common and Hoary Redpolls

Redpolls are a birch seed specialist in winter. Since the birch crop is poor in northeastern Ontario and Quebec, a few Common Redpolls should move south into southern Ontario and farther east and south. However, most redpolls may be drawn to good birch crops in northwestern Ontario and westward in the boreal forest into Saskatchewan.

Pine Siskin

Siskins are a conifer seed specialist when they winter in northern Ontario. Hemlock seed is another favorite in central Ontario. Most siskins departed the province early this past summer and appear to have gone mainly to western Canada. Banding recoveries show that siskins wander both ways between eastern and western North America. Siskins are currently very scarce in the Northeast. If siskins find good conifer crops in the Northwest, such as the interior of British Columbia, they will stay to winter and breed. It is uncertain whether many will return east this fall to winter in northwestern Ontario, the Maritime Provinces and northern New England States, where cone crops are good to excellent.

Evening Grosbeak

Breeding populations are much lower now than 35 years ago due mainly to a decrease of large outbreaks of spruce budworm beginning in the 1980s. A very few grosbeaks may move south from northeastern Ontario and Quebec where coniferous and deciduous seed supplies are generally poor. If any come, there are large crops of Manitoba maple seeds and plenty of sunflower seeds at feeders waiting for them.

Four More Irruptive SpeciesTop

Northern Goshawk

A good flight is very possible this fall or next. Goshawks in the boreal forest in winter prey on hares, grouse and red squirrels. Snowshoe Hares have been abundant in parts of northern Ontario the past few years and they should crash soon. Also, Ruffed Grouse likely had a poor breeding season due to a cool, wet spring and summer, which lowered chick survival.

Blue Jay

The flight began in the second week of September. This year's flight is much larger than in 2008 along the north shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie because most acorn, beechnut and hazelnut crops were poor this summer in Ontario with some local exceptions. Many fewer jays will winter in Ontario because most could not find enough food to store.

Red‐breasted Nuthatch

Movements of this nuthatch in Ontario are linked to cone crop abundance, particularly white spruce, white pine and balsam fir when bumper. There has not been a noticeable southward movement along Lakes Ontario and Erie, indicating this is not an irruption year for it and associated winter finches such as White‐winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins. However, Red‐breasted Nuthatches will be scarce this winter in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park and in northeastern Ontario and Quebec because cone crops there are generally poor in these areas. Many nuthatches likely dispersed to better cone crops north and west of Lake Superior and east to the Maritime Provinces.

Bohemian Waxwing

Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is a mountain‐ash berry specialist in winter. Mountain‐ash crops are high around Lake Superior and in many areas of northern Ontario. Crops are also good in Quebec, Newfoundland and northern New England States so this nomad may show up in these areas this winter. Its breeding and winter ranges in eastern North America have expanded in recent times. Range maps in field guides show Bohemians breeding east to James Bay, but recently they have been found in summer scattered across northern Quebec and Labrador. Historically they were very rare in winter on the island of Newfoundland, but are now abundant there some winters. Their winter range movements have also expanded to other eastern areas because of planted European mountain‐ashes and ornamental crabapples.

Where to see FinchesTop

A winter trip to Algonquin Park is always a birding adventure. The park is a three hour drive north of Toronto. Finch numbers will be low in Algonquin this winter, but the feeders at the Visitor Centre should attract a few Evening Grosbeaks, Pine Grosbeaks and redpolls. Gray Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes a Pine Marten or Fisher feeds on the suet. An observation deck overlooks a spectacular boreal wetland and black spruce/tamarack forest. Eastern Canadian Wolves (Canis lycaon), which until recently was a subspecies of the Gray Wolf, are seen occasionally from the observation deck feeding on road‐killed Moose put out by park staff. The Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43 are open on weekends in winter. Arrangements can be made to view feeders on weekdays. For information, call the Visitor Centre at 613‐637‐2828. The Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 near the Visitor Centre and the gated area north on the Opeongo Road are the best spots for finches, Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black‐backed Woodpecker.

Finches and Trees

A good knowledge of trees is essential to understanding winter finch habitats, food preferences and distributions. By coincidence, the finch forecast comes out the same week as the new “The Sibley Guide to Trees”. In a recent interview with Birder's World, David Sibley said “I wanted it to be a tree guide for birdwatchers”.

Previous Finch ForecastsTop

Previous Finch Forecasts are available here.

The recently published Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007 has detailed peer‐reviewed information and maps on boreal winter finches. I highly recommend it.

General Finch Forecast 2008-2009Top

by Ron Pittaway

Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
18 September 2008

General Forecast

This winter’s theme is where will crossbills go and will they irrupt south? Both species wandered widely this summer. Cone crops are poor in the Atlantic Provinces and fair to moderate in Western Canada. In Ontario, spruce crops are fair to good west and east of Lake Superior and in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park, but cone abundance diminishes rapidly northwards into the boreal forest. White pine (Ontario’s provincial tree) has heavy cone crops in most areas. The hemlock crop is poor in central Ontario. The white birch crop is fair to good west and east of Lake Superior to Lake Ontario, but poor in the boreal forest. The mountain‐ash (rowan berry) crop is excellent in Ontario and Western Canada, but poor in the Atlantic Provinces. Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario, but adjacent provinces and states may find the forecast of interest. I also comment on three irruptive passerines and two boreal forest raptors.

Individual Finch ForecastsTop

Pine Grosbeak

A mountain‐ash berry specialist in winter, Pine Grosbeaks will stay north of most birders this winter because mountain‐ash berries are abundant in northern Ontario. A few normally get south to Algonquin Park, but they are unlikely farther south.

Purple Finch

This finch stays in the north only when most tree species have heavy seed crops. This fall most Purple Finches will migrate south out of the province because overall tree seed crops are too low. A very few may winter in southern Ontario.

Red Crossbill

This crossbill comprises nine ecotypes in North America; each has cone(s) preferences related to bill size and shape. The Types are difficult to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3 and probably 4 occur in Ontario. The white pine Type 2 is apparently the most frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the province (Simard 2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario). Since white pine has abundant crops in most areas, expect Type 2s to be widespread in small numbers. Hemlock Type 3 (subspecies sitkensis of AOU Check‐list 1957) prefers the small cones of hemlock and white spruce when bumper in Ontario. Type 3s should be absent from the province this winter because the hemlock crop is poor and the white spruce crop is average. Other Types are possible this winter given the bumper white pine cone crop and good crop on red pine. The Red Crossbill complex very much needs further study.

White-winged Crossbill

This crossbill wandered widely this past summer searching for extensive spruce cone crops. Reports came from Alaska, Yukon, Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Quebec and many northern states such as Michigan and New York. Most kept moving but some stopped and their singing suggested nesting but spruce cone crops are generally not large enough in most areas to support major nestings. The White‐winged Crossbill specializes on the small soft cones of black and white spruces and hemlock when bumper in Ontario. This winter they should be widespread in small numbers in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park. However, spruce cone crops are generally low in most of Canada and as seed supplies are exhausted this fall and winter so a moderate southward irruption is probable, perhaps extending south into the central United States. Watch for them on ornamental spruces and European larch.

Common and Hoary Redpolls

The Common Redpoll is a white birch seed specialist in the boreal forest in winter. White birch crops are poor in the northern two‐thirds of the boreal forest, but seed abundance increases southward. In central Ontario, such as Algonquin Park, crops on white and yellow birches range from fair to good. It is uncertain whether the birch crop is large enough to stop the southward movement in central Ontario about latitude 45 degrees. Some Common Redpolls, including a few Hoarys, may get south to Lake Ontario if birch seed supplies run low.

Pine Siskin

A conifer seed specialist in winter, most Pine Siskins should leave the province this fall because the spruce cone crop is poor in the boreal forest. It is uncertain whether the huge white pine seed crop will keep some Pine Siskins in central and northern Ontario this winter.

Evening Grosbeak

A conifer and hardwood seed generalist in winter, Evening Grosbeaks should make a small southward movement this winter because food supplies are probably sufficient in the north. Older birders remember the 1970s when the Evening Grosbeak was a common feeder bird. Their memory is based on the greatly inflated numbers 30 years ago in Eastern Canada due to huge outbreaks of spruce budworm. The last Algonquin Christmas Bird Count to have high numbers of Evening Grosbeaks was in 1984 with 1474 individuals, which was the North American CBC record that year. A significant decline in grosbeak numbers began in the mid‐1980s because the size of annual budworm outbreaks decreased. Ontario’s breeding population is currently probably stable, subject to periodic fluctuations in spruce budworm (Hoar 2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario).

Other Irruptive PasserinesTop

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Movements of this nuthatch are linked to cone crop abundance, particularly spruce, white pine and balsam fir in Ontario. Good numbers of Red‐breasted Nuthatches should winter in Ontario this year feeding on the bumper white pine seed crop and good spruce/fir crops in many areas such as Algonquin Park.

Bohemian Waxwing

Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is a mountain‐ash berry specialist in winter. Mountain‐ash crops are excellent across northern Ontario (bumper around Lake Superior) so very few Bohemians will wander out of the boreal forest this winter. Some may get south into traditional wintering areas of central Ontario such as Orillia, Peterborough and Ottawa where European mountain‐ash berries are in good supply.

Blue Jay

Good numbers of jays will winter in central Ontario because the red oak acorn crop is good and beechnut crop is fair in central Ontario. Many other fruits and berries are abundant. Therefore this fall’s flight should be average or smaller along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie.

Boreal RaptorsTop

Northern Goshawk

A small flight is possible this fall because high snowshoe hare populations have declined in much of northern Ontario. However, grouse numbers (Ruffed, Spruce, Sharp‐tailed) are generally good so they may buffer the decline in hares.

Boreal Owl

Small mammal populations have crashed across northern and central Ontario. In Quebec, Pascal Cote of Observatoire d’oiseaux de Tadoussac expects a flight of Boreal Owls this fall and winter following their 4 year cycle linked to red‐backed voles. Southern Ontario may get Boreal Owls and other northern forest owls this winter.

Where to see FinchesTop

A winter trip to Algonquin Park is a birding adventure. The park is a mix of boreal and hardwood habitats o nly a three hour drive north of Toronto. Kilometre distances are marked from the west entrance. Watch carefully for crossbills and other finches in early morning eating road salt and sand. Two excellent birding spots are the Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 and the gate area on the Opeongo Road about 4 km north from km 46 on the highway. Watch and listen for finches, Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black‐backed Woodpecker. The Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43 are open only on weekends in winter. An observation deck overlooks a spectacular bog and black spruce forest. The feeders attract Evening Grosbeak, Pine Grosbeak, Common Redpoll and other finches depending on the winter. Gray Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes a pine marten or fisher goes to the suet. Eastern Canadian Wolves (Canis lycaon) are seen occasionally from the observation deck feeding on road‐killed moose put out by park staff. Arrangements can be made to view feeders on weekdays. For information call the Visitor Centre at 613‐637‐2828.

General Finch Forecast 2007-2008Top

by Ron Pittaway

Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
15 September 2007

This winter's theme is "finches going in three directions" depending on the species. Some finches have gone east and west or both, while others will come south. Most coniferous and deciduous trees have very poor seed crops in much of Ontario and western Quebec. The exception is northwestern Ontario such as Quetico Provincial Park, Dryden and Lake of the Woods, where there are good crops on some species. However, north of a line from the top of Lake Nipigon to Manitoba the crops are generally low in the boreal forest. This will be a quiet winter for most (not all) winter finches in Algonquin Provincial Park, in contrast to last winter's bumper seed crops and abundance of finches. Most of last winter's White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins departed Ontario this past summer. They probably went either to eastern or western Canada or both where there are bumper cone crops. Type 3 Red Crossbills, which were abundant in Ontario last winter, have probably returned to their core range in western North America. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins will not be irrupting south out of Ontario as they do in some flight years, because most have already gone east and/or west. However, other winter finches such as Pine Grosbeaks, Evening Grosbeaks, Purple Finches and redpolls are irrupting or will irrupt southward out of northern Ontario. See individual species accounts for details. In addition I comment on other irruptive passerines, such as the Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to cone crops. Also included is a comment on northern owls.

Individual Finch ForecastsTop

Pine Grosbeak

This grosbeak will irrupt south of the breeding range because crops on native mountain-ashes (rowan berries) are generally poor in northeastern Ontario and across the boreal forest. However, crops are good in northwestern Ontario west of Lake Superior. Pine Grosbeaks should wander south to Lake Ontario and perhaps farther in search of crabapples and planted European mountain-ash berries, which have average crops in southern Ontario. Watch for them at feeders where they prefer sunflower seeds. After irruptions, Pine Grosbeaks return north earlier than other northern finches. Most are gone by late March. Buds form a larger part of their winter diet when mountain-ash crops are poor.

Purple Finch

Most Purple Finches will migrate out of Ontario this fall in response to the low seed crops. Currently, Purple Finches are migrating south through southern Ontario. Very few or none will stay behind at feeders in southern Ontario.

Red Crossbill

The Red Crossbill complex comprises 9 sibling Types, possibly full species, which have different call notes, and different bill sizes related to cone preferences. At least three Types occur in Ontario. Type 3 (smallest bill) prefers small hemlock cones (and spruce cones) in Ontario. The hemlock Type 3 was abundant last winter, but is presumed absent now from the province because hemlock produced few or no cones in 2007. Type 2 (medium sized bill) is adapted to white pine cones. White pine cone crops are fair to good (but spotty) in northern Ontario. Currently, small numbers of Type 2 Red Crossbills are present on the "east side" of Algonquin Park (heavy crop on white pine) and probably elsewhere with extensive white pine forest. Algonquin's east side pine forest is accessible from Highway 17 west of Pembroke. South of Algonquin white pine crops are poor to none.

White-winged Crossbill

This crossbill moves back and forth across northern coniferous forests searching for new cone crops. Most White-winged Crossbills left Ontario this past summer. They will be scarce or absent in Ontario this winter. They presumably went either west to bumper spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British Columbia, and/or to Atlantic Canada, which has large cone crops on spruce and balsam fir, particularly in Newfoundland and Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia. White-winged Crossbills are currently common in Newfoundland and western Canada.

Common and Hoary Redpolls

There will be a big flight of redpolls into southern Ontario and bordering United States. Seed crops on white birch, yellow birch and alder are very poor in most of Ontario. Expect redpolls at bird feeders this winter. Far northwestern Ontario has a good white birch crop so redpolls may be common there.

Pine Siskin

Similar to the White-winged Crossbill, most Pine Siskins departed Ontario this past summer, presumably attracted to huge spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British Columbia and/or to big spruce and balsam fir cone crops in Newfoundland and Cape Breton Island and probably elsewhere in the Atlantic Provinces. Some of the very few siskins that remained in Ontario are now wandering south with sightings of usually only ones and twos in southern Ontario. Large southward irruptions occur when cone crop failures span much of Canada. Very few siskins will visit feeders this winter in southern Ontario.

Evening Grosbeak

This grosbeak will irrupt south of the boreal forest this fall because tree seed crops are generally very poor in northeastern Ontario and western Quebec. In recent weeks scattered birds have visited feeders in southern Ontario. Beginning in the early 1980s the Evening Grosbeak declined significantly as large outbreaks of spruce budworm subsided. The larvae and pupae are eaten by adults and fed to nestlings. Expect Evening Grosbeaks at bird feeders in southern Ontario and northern United States, but not in the large numbers seen during the 1970s.

Other Irruptive PasserinesTop

Red-breasted Nuthatch

They have been moving south since mid-June presumably because of the poor cone crop in central Canada. Almost all Red-breasted Nuthatches will depart Ontario's boreal forest by late fall and left the province. Some will be at feeders in southern Ontario, but they will be very scarce in Algonquin Park. Algonquin Christmas Bird Counts (32 years) show a biennial (every two years) high and low pattern, with some exceptions.

Bohemian Waxwing

The poor crop of native mountain-ash (rowan berries) in much of northern Ontario will cause Bohemians Waxwings to wander south and east this winter. Watch for them eating buckthorn berries and crabapples in southern Ontario. The mountain-ash crop is better west of Lake Superior with a big crop around Kenora at Lake of the Woods.

Blue Jay

A strong flight is expected this fall. The beechnut crop is zero and the acorn crop on red oak is only fair to good (aborted in some areas) in central Ontario. Soon thousands of jays will be migrating southwest along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie, exiting Ontario south of Windsor. This winter there will be far fewer Blue Jays in Algonquin Park and at feeders in central Ontario.

Gray Jay and Boreal Chickadee

They are moving in northeastern Quebec east of Tadoussac along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River. These movements could extend to southern Ontario and northeastern states.

Northern OwlsTop

Small mammal populations were abundant this summer in northern Ontario, presumably increasing after the big seed/berry/fruit crops in 2006. However, crops this year are very poor in much of the north, partly caused by cold weather and snow in late spring that froze the buds and flowers of many plants. In early August, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources biologists on aerial surveys noted many raptors near James Bay including 15-20 Great Gray Owls, Short-eared Owls (common), Northern Harriers (common) and scattered Rough-legged Hawks. If small mammal populations crash this fall, then Great Gray Owls, Northern Hawk Owls and Boreal Owls will move, possibly southward into areas accessible by birders. Northern Saw-whet Owl numbers are linked to red-backed voles (a forest vole) in Ontario. There is the possibility that this vole could decline soon because it often cycles with deer mice. The huge population of deer mice in central Ontario is declining rapidly now because of poor seed crops this summer, particularly sugar maple samaras, which they store for the winter. If red-backed vole numbers decline as they often do in association with deer mice, there will be a strong flight of Northern Saw-whet Owls this fall.

General Finch Forecast 2006-2007Top

by Ron Pittaway

Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
15 September 2007

This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper seed crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United States. It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in northern Ontario and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few boreal finches will move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most finches likely will be scarce even in southern Ontario south of the Canadian (Precambrian) Shield this winter despite bumper seed crops on native and ornamental species. There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, New York and northern New England States, so finches will be there too, but in what numbers is the question, because excellent crops are so widespread this year. There are good cone crops west of Lake Superior in northwestern Ontario, but cone quality diminishes towards Manitoba because of severe drought conditions this year. Cone crops are generally poor at the continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both White-winged and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late June in areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches. I added a new section this year called Finch Notes. It discusses bumper seed crops, speculates on how crossbills find cone crops, when crossbills move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed finches, and where to see finches this winter in Ontario.

Individual Finch ForecastsTop

Pine Grosbeak

Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario because the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent to bumper this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other trees and shrubs will provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south as Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters.

Purple Finch

The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species in big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter.

Red Crossbill

Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms (possibly full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes related to cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in Ontario. One prefers hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly to pines, mainly white pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen and heard singing in hemlocks in August suggesting that the small-billed hemlock subspecies sitkensis has moved into central Ontario where hemlock cone crops are excellent as in Algonquin Park and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock form has the smallest bill of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the White-winged Crossbill's bill. Road-killed sitkensis can be identified by measuring their stubby bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone crops, unlike other conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park. However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine crops such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red Crossbills wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since spruce cones are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills will be found feeding in spruce to some extent this winter.

White-winged Crossbill

Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from Newfoundland to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged Crossbills will be widespread and perhaps common in many areas of northern and central Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on spruces, tamarack, balsam fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest concentrations of White-wings will be in northeastern Ontario between Lake Superior and Quebec where the super bumper crop of white spruce cones is “a 1-in-20-year cyclical phenomenon” making this is a rather rare event in seed production for white spruce (Scott McPherson, pers. comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern Ontario in late June and increased during July associated with big cone crops. They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone seeds and probably nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in early 2007. White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been widespread in small numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is suggested by two sightings of recently fledged young in August. White-winged Crossbills possibly came from western Canada and Alaska wandering eastward searching for cone crops. One reason why there are no subspecies on this continent versus the eight or more types of Red Crossbills is that White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east and west across North America, and thus are constantly mixing. This allows outcrossing and gene flow among populations, suppressing the formation of geographical variation.

Common Redpoll

This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario this winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent to bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall any redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may get as far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther.

Pine Siskin

Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on spruces, balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of siskins can be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight formation. They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose undulating flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern Ontario. Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that the highly nomadic siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting the formation of geographical variation.

Evening Grosbeak

Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest this winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and hardwoods such as black ash. Expect a few in Algonquin Park, particularly around the feeders at the Visitor Centre. The eastern population of Evening Grosbeaks started declining in 1980 as large outbreaks of spruce budworm subsided. The population is probably stable now, but much reduced from the 1970s when Evening Grosbeaks were common at bird feeders.

Other Irruptive SpeciesTop

Blue Jay

Some Blue Jays move every year, but only a small flight is expected this fall. The good to excellent crop of beechnuts on American beech in most areas of central and southern Ontario should keep many Blue Jays from migrating south this September and October along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Blue Jays are now actively storing beechnuts. Also, there are excellent crops of hazelnuts which will add to the non-migratory tendency of Blue Jays this fall. The red oak acorn crop is poor in most areas of central Ontario, but the lack of acorns should be compensated for by the large mast crops on other deciduous trees and shrubs.

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Most Red-breasted Nuthatches will not migrate south this fall. The bumper cone crops across Ontario will hold most Red-breasted Nuthatches close to their northern breeding grounds this winter. When Red-breasted Nuthatches winter in the boreal forest they eat conifer seeds so are closely linked to finches.

Bohemian Waxwing

The excellent to bumper crop of mountain-ash (rowan berries) will keep most Bohemians Waxwings close to the boreal forest this winter.

Boreal Forest Owls

The widespread abundance of seeds, berries, nuts and fruits (mast) is providing a huge food supply for small mammals such as voles so their numbers should be increasing. Most boreal forest owls (Northern Hawk Owl, Great Gray Owl, Boreal Owl) likely will stay close to breeding territories this winter. Increasing numbers of small mammals will increase owl breeding success next spring and summer.

Finch NotesTop

Why Bumper Tree Seed Crops?

One theory of bumper crops is to ensure that adequate seed supplies will germinate above the losses to consumers such as fungi, insects, mammals and birds. Many trees have only moderate seed production in most years followed by periodic bumper crops producing huge surpluses beyond the capacity of seed consumers. Tree species normally synchronize seed crops with members of their own species across hundreds of kilometres/miles and they sometimes synchronize with other species as has happened this year in the Northeast. This year's bumper crops probably resulted from last year's hot and dry stress conditions throughout most of the Northeast. Most plants under stress one year will produce more seed the following year as a form of survival. The size of the seed crop the following year is largely determined by the weather at the time of flowering and pollination. If the weather is too cold or too hot the flower buds will not develop properly. If there is too much rain during pollination and no wind then poor pollination takes place. This year in the Northeast the weather was perfect for most conifer and hardwood species. However, white pine and red oak are two significant species with poor seed crops in 2006 in central Ontario. Why these two species? First, white pine cones take two summers to ripen as opposed to spruce, fir, tamarack, cedar and hemlock which ripen in one summer. Last year white pine grew a drought stressed crop of immature conelets with considerable losses, resulting in a generally poor crop maturing this year. Second, red oak had abundant flowers in May but produced few acorns (some good crops) this year because the weather turned cool and wet just when its flowers were ready to pollinate.

How Do Crossbills Find Bumper Cone Crops?

Crossbills (and other finches, particularly siskins) can locate big cone crops half a continent or more away. Crossbills have well-developed sensory and nervous systems and the evidence is clear that they respond to external stimuli such as growing seed crops. The ability of crossbills to find bumper cone crops suggests something more than random searching, but we do not know how they do it. Ian Newton (1972) in his classic book on Finches suggested that crossbill populations may move back and forth along a particular migration axis, stopping in different regions in different years. Ian Newton (pers. comm.) said, “Crossbills seem to move every year, so if they accumulated in areas of good crops in one year, they will leave when that crop comes to an end”. Newton does not think their searches are random. There is much to learn about nomadic winter finches.

When Do Crossbills Move To Bumper Seed Crops?

Before big crossbill nestings, they normally begin arriving in summer in areas with developing bumper cone crops. This summer there were reports of crossbills moving in Minnesota (Red Crossbills), northern Michigan, northeastern Ontario (both species), central Ontario (both species in Algonquin Park), northern New York State (Red Crossbills), Quebec (White-winged Crossbills), northern New Hampshire (White-winged Crossbills), Maine (White-winged Crossbills) and New Brunswick (White-winged Crossbills). In years when either Red or White-winged Crossbills nested in late winter and early spring in Algonquin Park, numbers were high in the preceding late summer and fall.

When Do Crossbills Nest?

The following information is courtesy of Ron Tozer from his draft manuscript for The Birds of Algonquin Park. (A) White-winged Crossbills nest during two main periods in Algonquin Park. (1) The main nestings are in late December to mid-March with fledged juveniles seen from late March to late May. (2) July and August nestings produce young seen in early August to mid-October. (B) Red Crossbills also nest during two main periods. (1) Adults with dependent young have been seen in late April to mid-June from nestings in January, February and probably March. (2) Adults with dependent young seen from mid-August to late October are from nestings in June and probably July. Both species nest occasionally outside the core periods described above. Note The presence of independent streaked young in either species does not necessarily indicate local breeding because the juvenile plumage can be retained for a considerable time.

Road-killed Finches

This could be a winter when thousands of winter finches are killed by cars in places such as Algonquin Park and the Haliburton Highlands. Finches are attracted to the salt and sand put on highways. They have little fear of cars. I remember one collision that killed 63 siskins in Algonquin Park. Common Ravens have an easy time patrolling for road kills. When you see finches on the road, slow down, flash lights and tap your horn several times. Finches often do not respond in time. Be careful not to confuse other drivers.

Where To See Winter Finches

This should be a good year for a winter trip to Algonquin Park. The park is a three hours drive north of Toronto. White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins should be common, although siskins have been absent to date. Red Crossbills, Purple Finches and Evening Grosbeaks are possible in smaller numbers. A few Pine Grosbeaks are likely, but most will be farther north. Redpolls should stay farther north this winter in the boreal forest. Drive Highway 60 in early morning watching for flocks of finches attracted to the salt and sand put on the highway to reduce accidents. There are feeders at the Visitor Centre, which is open only on weekends in winter. Arrangements can be made to view the feeders on weekdays. For the latest information on finches, call the Visitor Centre at 613-637-2828 or e-mail retired park naturalist .

General Finch Forecast 2010-2011Top

by Ron Pittaway

Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
23 September 2010

This winter’s theme is that some finch species will irrupt into southern Canada and the northern United States, while other species will remain in the north. As an example, Common and Hoary Redpolls will move south whereas Pine Grosbeaks will stay in the north. See individual finch forecasts below for details. Three irruptive non‐finch passerines are also discussed.

Key Finch Tree Crops

Key trees in the boreal forest affecting finch abundance and movements are white and black spruces, white birch, and mountain‐ashes. South of the boreal in the mixed coniferous/deciduous forest region, white pine and hemlock are additional key finch trees. Other trees play a lesser role, but often boost or buffer main seed sources. These include tamarack (American larch), balsam fir, white cedar, yellow birch and alders.

Spruce

White spruce cone crops are very good to excellent across the northern half of the boreal forest in Canada, except Newfoundland where crops are poor. However, spruce crops are much lower in the southern half of the boreal forest and poor in the mixed forest region of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park. The spruce crop is good to very good in central and northern Quebec, but generally poor in Atlantic Canada and northeastern United States. Spruce cone abundance is very good in the foothills of Alberta and eastern side of the Rocky Mountains in Canada, but poor in the southern half of British Columbia and in Washington State. A bumper white spruce cone crop in southern Yukon attracted high numbers of White‐winged Crossbills and Pine Pine Siskins this past summer and they may remain there through the winter. Spruce crops are generally poor in the Atlantic Provinces, New York State and New England States.

White Pine

Cone crop is spotty with scattered good to excellent crops across Ontario. White pine crops are low in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England States.

Hemlock

Cone crop is poor in Ontario and elsewhere in the East.

White Birch

Crop is poor across the boreal forest of Canada and in central Ontario, but birch crops are much better in southern Ontario south of the Canadian (Precambrian) Shield.

Mountain‐Ash

Berry crops are generally excellent across Canada and Alaska, but poor in Newfoundland.

INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS

Forecasts apply mainly to Ontario, but neighboring provinces and states may find they apply to them.

Pine Grosbeak

The Pine Grosbeak breeds in moist open habitats across northern Ontario. It is most common in northeastern Ontario which receives more precipitation than northwestern Ontario (Peck and Coady in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Most Pine Grosbeaks should stay in the north this winter because the mountain‐ash berry crop is generally excellent across the boreal forest of Canada and Alaska, except for a poor crop in Newfoundland. The feeders at the Visitor Centre in Algonquin Park usually attract Pine Grosbeaks even in non‐flight winters. If Pine Grosbeaks wander into southern Ontario they will find good crops of European mountain‐ash berries and ornamental crabapples.

Purple Finch

This finch winters in the north when the majority of deciduous and coniferous seed crops are abundant, which is not the case this year. Most Purple Finches will migrate south of Ontario this fall. A few may frequent feeders in southern Ontario. Purple Finch numbers have declined significantly in recent decades due in part to a decrease of spruce budworm outbreaks since the 1980s (Leckie and Cadman in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007).

Red Crossbill

This crossbill comprises at least 10 “call types” in North America. Each type has its particular cone preferences related to bill size and shape. These crossbill types may be at an early stage of evolving into full species and some may already qualify for species status. They are exceedingly difficult to identify in the field and much remains to be learned about their status and distribution. Types 2 and 3 and probably 4 occur regularly in Ontario (Simard in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Most Red Crossbill types prefer pines, but the smallest‐billed Type 3 (sitkensis subspecies of AOU Check‐list 1957) prefers the small soft cones of hemlock in Ontario. It will be absent this winter because hemlock crops are poor. Type 2 may be the most frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the province. Some Type 2s should be found this winter where white pine crops are very good such as northeastern Algonquin Park and along Highway 69 north of the French River in Sudbury District. Possible this winter are other Red Crossbill types associated with red pine, which has some locally good crops.

White‐winged Crossbill

High numbers of White‐winged Crossbills are currently concentrated in southern Yukon where the white spruce cone crop is bumper. These may remain there this winter. This crossbill’s highest breeding abundance in Ontario is in the spruce dominated Hudson Bay Lowlands and adjacent northern Canadian Shield (Coady in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Most Ontario reports this past summer came from this area where the white spruce cone crop is heavy. Some were singing and presumably nesting. They might remain in northern Ontario this winter if seed supplies last. Some may disperse southward as spruce seeds run low and could appear in southern Ontario and northern United States. However, they will be rare or absent this winter in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park where spruce and hemlock cone crops are very poor. Unlike the Red Crossbill, the White‐winged Crossbill has no subspecies (monotypic) or call types in North America. Its nomadic wanderings across the boreal forest mix the populations and allow gene flow, which inhibits geographical variation and the formation of subspecies.

Common Redpoll

Common Redpolls should irrupt into southern Canada and the northern United States this winter. The Common Redpoll’s breeding range in Ontario is mainly in the Hudson Bay Lowlands from the Manitoba border southeast to southern James Bay (Leckie and Pittaway in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Common Redpolls in winter are a birch seed specialist and movements are linked in part to the size of the birch crop. The white birch crop is poor across much of northern Canada. Another indicator of an upcoming irruption was a good Common Redpoll breeding season in 2010 with double and possibly triple broods reported in Quebec. High breeding success also was reported in Yukon. Samuel Denault of McGill University has shown that Common Redpoll movements at Tadoussac, Quebec, are more related to reproductive success than to tree seed crops in the boreal forest. Common Redpolls will be attracted to the good birch seed crops on native white birch and European white birch in southern Ontario and to weedy fields. They should be frequent this winter at feeders offering nyger and black oil sunflower seeds. Watch for the larger, darker and browner “Greater” Common Redpolls (rostrata subspecies) in the flocks. It is reliably identified by its larger size and proportionally longer thicker bill and longer tail in direct comparison with “Southern” Common Redpolls (nominate flammea subspecies).

Hoary Redpoll

The breeding population in northern Ontario is the most southerly in the world (Leckie and Pittaway in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Careful checking of Common Redpoll flocks should produce a few Hoary Redpolls. There are two subspecies. Most Hoaries seen in southern Canada and northern United States are “Southern” Hoary Redpolls (exilipes subspecies). During the last large Common Redpoll irruption in 2007/2008, several “Hornemann’s” Hoary Redpolls (nominate hornemanni subspecies) were found and supported by photographs. Hornemann’s Common Redpoll was previously regarded as a great rarity south of the Arctic, but it may be more frequent than formerly believed. Hornemann’s is most reliably identified by its much larger size in direct comparison with flammea Common Redpolls or exilipes Hoary Redpoll. Note that white birds loom larger than life among darker birds and size illusions are possible.

Pine Siskin

Similar to the White‐winged Crossbill, there are currently high numbers of Pine Siskins in southern Yukon attracted to a bumper white spruce cone crop. They could stay in Yukon for the winter. Pine Siskins show a tendency for north‐south migration, but are better considered an opportunistic nomad (Pittaway in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). Banding recoveries show that Pine Siskins wander from coast to coast searching for conifer seed crops. They were uncommon this past summer in Ontario and the Northeast. Some might winter in northern Ontario where the white spruce crop is heavy. However, Pine Siskins are currently uncommon in the Northeast so there are potentially only very small numbers that could irrupt south in eastern North America.

Evening Grosbeak

Highest breeding densities in Ontario are found in areas with spruce budworm outbreaks. Current breeding and wintering populations are now much lower than a few decades ago mainly because large spruce budworm outbreaks have subsided since the 1980s (Hoar in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007). If some come south this winter, they will find large crops of Manitoba maple (boxelder) seeds and plenty of black oil sunflower seeds at feeders waiting for them.

Three more Irruptive Passerines

Blue Jay

This will be an average flight year with smaller numbers than in 2009 along the north shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Beechnut crops are poor to none. Acorn crops are spotty, but considerably better than last year. More Blue Jays will winter in Ontario than last winter due to caches of acorns and other mast crops.

Red‐breasted Nuthatch

This nuthatch is a conifer seed specialist when it winters in the north, thus its movements are triggered by the same crops as the boreal winter finches. The southward movement, which began in the summer, signaled the generally poor cone crops on spruces, balsam fir and white pine in the mixed coniferous/deciduous forest region across Ontario and in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England States. Red‐breasted Nuthatches will be very scarce this winter in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park. White spruce crops are excellent in the northern half of the boreal forest, but it is uncertain how many Red‐breasted Nuthatches will winter that far north.

Bohemian Waxwing

Most Bohemians Waxwings will stay close to the boreal forest this winter because mountain‐ash berry crops are excellent across Canada, except in Newfoundland. Some should wander south to traditional areas of eastern and central Ontario such as Ottawa and Peterborough where planted European mountain‐ashes and ornamental crabapples are frequent. If you get the opportunity to visit northern Ontario this winter, you may see Bohemian Waxwings and Pine Grosbeaks feeding together on mountain‐ash berries. The grosbeaks eat the seeds and discard the flesh whereas the waxwings swallow the entire berry and sometimes eat the fleshy leftovers of the grosbeaks. The similar coloration of Bohemian Waxwings and female Pine Grosbeaks may be functional, perhaps reducing interspecific aggression when they feed together.

Where To See Finches

A winter trip to Algonquin Park is a birding adventure. The park is a three hour drive north of Toronto. Finch numbers will be low in Algonquin forests this winter, but the feeders at the Visitor Centre should attract Common Redpolls, Evening Grosbeaks and Pine Grosbeaks. Gray Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes Pine Martens and Fishers feed on the suet and sunflower seeds. A high observation deck overlooks a spectacular boreal wetland and black spruce/tamarack forest. Eastern Timber Wolves (Canis lycaon), which until recently was a subspecies of the Gray Wolf (C. lupus), are seen occasionally from the observation deck feeding on road‐killed Moose put out by park staff. The Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43 are open on weekends in winter. Arrangements can be made to view feeders on weekdays. For information, call the Visitor Centre at 613‐637‐2828. The Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 near the Visitor Centre and the gated area north on the Opeongo Road are the best spots for finches, Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black‐backed Woodpecker.

Literature Cited

Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007 by editors M.D. Cadman, D.American Sutherland, G.G. Beck, D. Lepage and A.R. Couturier. See it here.